
U.S. Shale Production Costs Are Finally Falling
Commodity
Oil
Writer
Administrator

Oil · 07 July, 2023
U.S. Shale Production Costs Are Finally Falling
After years of rising production costs amid post-pandemic inflation, the U.S. Shale Patch can finally breathe a sigh of relief after the cost trajectory hit a turning point.
Commodity
Oil
Writer
Administrator
- U.S. shale production costs fell 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the first time they have shrunk in three years.
- Goldman Sachs: U.S. shale production costs are set to fall 10% in 2024.
- Daily rig rates are down by more than 10% and the costs of steel and diesel are also trending lower.
After years of rising production costs amid post-pandemic inflation, the U.S. Shale Patch can finally breathe a sigh of relief after the cost trajectory hit a turning point. Production costs fell 1% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking the first time they have shrunk in three years. Drill pipe prices have halved this year, daily rig rates are down by more than 10% and the costs of steel and diesel are also trending lower. According to Goldman Sachs via Bloomberg, Drill pipe prices have fallen by 50% this year; daily rig rates are down by more than 10%, while the costs of diesel and steel have been gradually declining. Only labor has been defying this trend as wages continue rising.
Whereas a decline of a single percentage point might not make much of a difference on the bottom line, Goldman says costs will be 10% lower in 2024, enough to boost profits and cash flows significantly. Easing price pressures are most welcome: after two years of bummer earnings and copious cash flows, the U.S. oil and gas sector is set to record a decline on both metrics in the current year.
According to Moody's research report, industry earnings will stabilize overall in 2023, but remain below levels reached by recent peaks. The analysts note that commodity prices have declined from very high levels earlier in 2022, but predicted that prices are likely to remain cyclically strong through 2023. This, combined with modest growth in volumes, will support strong cash flow generation for oil and gas producers. Moody's estimates that the U.S. energy sector's EBITDA for 2023 will fall to $585B in 2023 from $$623B in 2022. The analysts say that low capex, rising uncertainty about the expansion of future supplies and high geopolitical risk premium will, however, continue to support cyclically high oil prices.
But the decline in earnings could come in worse than expected if current forecasts are any indication. U.S. oil and gas major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) revealed in an SEC filing on Wednesday that it expects to book sharply lower Q2 2023 earnings mainly due to low natural gas prices and lower refining margins. Exxon booked record earnings to the tune of $11.4 billion in Q1 2023, double from the $5.48 billion for Q1 2022. Earnings per share clocked in at $2.79 for the first quarter, beating the Wall Street consensus of $2.60. Exxon has predicted Q2 2023 earnings will clock in at ~$7.8 billion, a sharp drop from $11.4 billion for Q1 2023, with the company blaming $2.2 billion lower earnings in the upstream division due to lower natural gas prices, as well as another $2.2 billion decline in the energy products division, due to lower industry margins.
Mixed Oil Price Outlook
For the second consecutive month, the leading OPEC producer, Saudi Arabia, has extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August. The reduction will take the country's production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years. Saudi has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in a bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward.
The bears remain unconvinced, with Marwan Younes, chief investment officer of hedge fund Massar Capital Management, saying oil price gains are likely to be short-lived.
"The problem is when you cut production in an already weak environment, the impact is limited. It looks like we could be here for a while," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, has told the Wall Street Journal.
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley lowered its oil price forecast and predicted an oil surplus during the first half of 2024 thanks to non-OPEC supply growing faster than demand. MS has lowered its Brent price outlook for Q3 2023 to $75 from $77.50 per barrel and cut Q4 2023 forecast to $70 from $75. The Wall Street bank has also cut its oil price forecast for 2024 by $5, and now sees prices at $70 in Q1 2024; $72.50 in Q2 2024, $75 in Q3 2024 and $80 for the final quarter.
"Despite low investment, non-OPEC+ supply has been growing robustly and supply from Iran and Venezuela has been creeping higher. We still model stock draws in Q3, but expect oil price softness to continue as the market's focus shifts to H1 2024 when balances look in surplus," the bank said in a note.
But the bulls are still holding the fort: on Tuesday, TD Securities said that oil prices can still rally over the next 6 months regardless of ongoing demand fears as well as growing supply from the likes of Venezuela, Iran, and even Russia.
"We do expect crude to rebound in the second half of the year. We think approaching $90 is probably not unreasonable in the next six months or so as the worst of the fears about a recession moderate. When we look at demand growth for 2023, we're still looking north of two million barrels per day, and we continue to expect OPEC plus to be fairly well-disciplined on the supply side," Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities stated in a recent investor note.
Last month, Goldman Sachs' oil ultrabull Jeff Currie once again cut his Brent forecast for December, this time to $86 a barrel from $95 and $100 before that. Currie cited increasing supply from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela; growing recession fears, and persistent headwinds to higher prices from higher interest rates for his growing bearishness. His forecast is still good for nearly 20% upside.
Oil prices kicked off the second half of the year, trading around the $71 per barrel level and have steadily traded below their 100-day moving average since the end of April. Oil prices have declined nearly 12% in the year-to-date.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com / Jul 06, 2023
Last Updated: February 28, 2022
INPOINT GLOBAL LIMITED. and its affiliates (collectively or individually, as applicable, referred to as "Inpointglobal", "Company", "we", "our", "us") respect your right to privacy. This global Corporate Privacy Policy (“Policy”) explains who we are, how we collect, share, transfer and use personal information about you, and how you can exercise your privacy rights. This Policy applies to interactions we have with you via our websites, applications and other products and services including events, where you otherwise contact us and where we otherwise display or link to this Policy (“Services”) or in the course of our receipt of products or services from you or your employer.
Please note that some privacy rights and obligations may differ in certain locations based on applicable local data protection laws. We have included supplemental information for certain jurisdictions in this Policy.
Third parties that link from or to our Services, or from whom we collect personal information may have their own privacy policies and practices. This Policy does not apply to sites or applications offered by other companies or individuals, including third party products and services, that may be displayed as content in a search on our website. Please review any third-party policies to learn more about their practices.
To the extent a notice provided at the time of collection from a website or specific product conflicts with this Policy, the terms of that specific notice or supplemental privacy statement will apply.
If you enter into a separate agreement with us which requires, or contemplates, collecting, sharing, transferring, using or otherwise processing information about you in a manner that is different than that which is described in this Policy, the terms of that agreement will apply.
Last Updated: February 28, 2022
This Cookie Notice applies to Inpointglobal Inc. and its affiliates, which you have a contract with or which provide services to you, (collectively or individually, as applicable, referred to as 'Inpointglobal', “Company”, 'we', 'our', 'us') and the Inpointglobal websites and applications at or linked to from www.ipgplatts.com ('Websites'). This Cookie Notice explains how we use cookies and similar technologies to recognise you when you visit our websites and use our web applications. It explains what these technologies are and why we use them, as well as your rights to control our use of them.
What are cookies?
Cookies are small data files that are placed on your computer or mobile device when you visit a website. Cookies are widely used by website owners in order to make their websites work, or to work more efficiently, as well as to provide reporting information.
Where required by applicable law, we will obtain your consent before we place any cookies on your device that are not strictly necessary for the functioning of our Websites.
Cookies set by the website owner (in this case, Inpointglobal) are called 'first party cookies'. Cookies set by parties other than the website owner are called 'third party cookies'. Third party cookies enable third party features or functionality to be provided on or through the website (e.g. like advertising, interactive content and analytics). The parties that set these third party cookies can recognise your computer both when it visits the website in question and also when it visits certain other websites.
Why do we use cookies?
We use first party and third party cookies for several reasons. Our first party cookies are required for technical reasons in order for our Websites to operate, and we refer to these as 'essential' or 'strictly necessary' cookies. Other first and third party cookies also enable us to track and target the interests of our users to enhance the experience on our Websites. Third parties also serve cookies through our Websites for advertising, analytics and other purposes. This is described in more detail below.
The types of first and third party cookies served through our Websites and the purposes they perform are described below. Please note that the specific cookies served may vary depending on the specific Website you visit. You can find details of the particular cookies that are served on each Website, and of any parties serving third party cookies, on the Cookie Preference Center on the Website banner. We encourage you to interact with different categories of cookies and adjust your preferences. Visitors without access to this functionality can use their browser settings to control how cookies are set on their devices. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the Websites and impair the services we are able to offer. You can find more detailed information about how to control cookies later in this policy.
We use cookies on this site in four main ways:
• “Strictly necessary” cookies, which are first party cookies that must be set to allow us to deliver the Website to you and to provide specific services that you request from us. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. The services offered by our Websites that require cookies in order to function include: account log-in, shopping basket/online store, billing and comments/blog features.
• “Performance” cookies, which are first party cookies that help us to collect information about how visitors use our Websites and helps us with site analysis and improvements. Performance cookies will remain on your computer after you close your browser. We use all information collected by these cookies in aggregated form, rather than linking it to individual Website users. Where permitted by applicable law, we will deploy first party performance cookies automatically when you visit our Websites. If you opt out of, or do not allow, these cookies (as applicable), we will not know when you have visited our Websites and will not be able to monitor its performance.
• “Functionality” cookies, which allow our Websites to remember your choices or preferences, such as information on online forms or previous orders. These cookies enable you to move around our Websites and use its features such as accessing secure areas (e.g. content for registered users).These cookies allow us to offer you a personalized experience while using the Website. They are not used to track your browsing activity on other websites. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. The information gained through the use of functional cookies is anonymous and is not used for any other purpose. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
• “Targeting” cookies, which are third party cookies set through our Websites by our advertising partners. They are used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other websites. They do not directly store personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will still experience advertising but it will be less targeted to you.
How do we use Google Analytics on our Websites?
All of our Websites make use of cookies provided by Google Analytics to better understand how visitors use them. Google Analytics makes use of first party performance and targeting cookies placed through our Websites to provide us with information about users of our Websites. Google or its affiliate DoubleClick may recognize cookies placed through our Websites when you visit other websites and applications. Personal information generated by these cookies about your use of our Websites (including your IP address) will be transmitted to and stored by Google on servers in the United States of America. Google will use this information to evaluate your use of our Websites on our behalf and will compile reports on your activity for us.
For more information about how Google collects, uses, and shares your information collected through Google Analytics, including information collected through our Websites, please visit the Google Privacy Policy - Partners website at https://www.google.com/policies/privacy/partners/ or see Google’s own Privacy Policy at https://policies.google.com/privacy.
What about other tracking technologies, like web beacons?
Cookies are not the only way to recognise or track visitors to a website. We may use other, similar technologies from time to time, like web beacons (sometimes called 'tracking pixels' or 'clear gifs'). These are tiny graphics files that contain a unique identifier that enable us to recognise when someone has visited our Websites or opened an e-mail that we have sent them. This allows us, for example, to monitor the traffic patterns of users from one page within our Websites to another, to deliver or communicate with cookies, to understand whether you have come to our Websites from an online advertisement displayed on a third-party website, to improve site performance, and to measure the success of e-mail marketing campaigns. If you do not wish to enable such tracking, please do not download any images in such emails, or alternatively please unsubscribe from our mailing lists by updating your choices on our preference page or by following the link at the bottom of each email. In many instances, these technologies are also reliant on cookies to function properly, and so declining performance cookies will impair their functioning.
In this policy, references to 'cookies' are to cookies and to the similar tracking technologies referred to above.
Do you serve targeted advertising?
Third parties may serve cookies on your computer or mobile device to serve advertising through our Websites. These companies may use information about your visits to this and other websites in order to provide relevant advertisements about goods and services that you may be interested in. They may also employ technology that is used to measure the effectiveness of advertisements. This can be accomplished by them using cookies or web beacons to collect information about your visits to this and other sites in order to provide relevant advertisements about goods and services of potential interest to you. The information collected through this process does not enable us or them to identify your name, contact details or other personally identifying details unless you choose to provide these to us or the third party.
How can I control cookies?
You have the right to decide whether to accept or reject cookies. You can use our Cookie Preference Center or set or amend your web browser controls to accept or refuse cookies.
You can amend your cookies choices at any time, including by withdrawing your consent to cookies, through our Cookie Preference Center or by changing your web browser controls. If you choose to reject cookies, you may still use our Websites though your access to some functionality and areas of our Websites may be restricted. You may need to refresh your page for your settings to take effect.
Browser controls
Most browsers will allow you to see what cookies you have and delete them on an individual basis or block cookies from particular or all sites. Be aware that any preference set will be lost if you delete all cookies, including your preference to opt-out from cookies as this itself requires an opt-out cookie to have been set.
Find out how to manage cookies on popular web browsers:
• Microsoft Edge
• Internet Explorer
• Chrome
• Firefox
• Safari
If you are visiting this site using a mobile device such as a smartphone or tablet, please also refer to the manufacturer’s instructions on how to manage cookies.
Third party advertising opt-out
In addition, most advertising networks offer you a way to opt out of targeted advertising. If you would like to find out more information, please visit http://www.aboutads.info/choices/, https://optout.networkadvertising.org / or http://www.youronlinechoices.com.
If you want to opt out of Google Analytics, you can download and install the opt-out browser add-on developed by Google for your web browser. For more information about Google Analytics' currently available opt-outs, please see https://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout.
These opt out tools are provided by third parties, not Inpointglobal. Inpointglobal does not control or operate these programs or the choices that advertisers and others provide through these tools.
How often will you update this Cookie Notice?
We may update this Cookie Notice from time to time in order to reflect, for example, changes to the cookies we use or for other operational, legal or regulatory reasons. Please therefore re-visit this Cookie Notice regularly to stay informed about our use of cookies and related technologies.
The date at the top of this Cookie Notice indicates when it was last updated.
Our previous Cookie Notice was dated March 29, 2021. What’s changed since March 29, 2021?
• We have updated the Cookie Notice to ensure it accurately reflects our cookie practices following the merger with IHS Markit.
Where can I get further information?
If you have any questions about our use of cookies or other technologies, please contact our Chief Privacy Officer at info@inpointglobal.com or Chief Privacy Officer, INPOINT GLOBAL LIMITED., 61 Station Grove, Wembley, United Kingdom, HA0 4AR.
You may also use this personal information request form to contact us or exercise any of your rights in relation to personal information we collect or otherwise process by using cookies.
In some of our locations, we also have local contact details that you may prefer to use as set out in the 'How to contact us' section of our Corporate Privacy Policy.
Click here to learn more about the Corporate Privacy Policy
- Systematically retrieve data or other content from the Site to create or compile, directly or indirectly, a collection, compilation, database, or directory without written permission from us.
- Trick, defraud, or mislead us and other users, especially in any attempt to learn sensitive account information such as user passwords.
- Circumvent, disable, or otherwise interfere with security-related features of the Site, including features that prevent or restrict the use or copying of any Content or enforce limitations on the use of the Site and/or the Content contained therein.
- Disparage, tarnish, or otherwise harm, in our opinion, us and/or the Site.
- Use any information obtained from the Site in order to harass, abuse, or harm another person.
- Make improper use of our support services or submit false reports of abuse or misconduct.
- Use the Site in a manner inconsistent with any applicable laws or regulations.
- Engage in unauthorized framing of or linking to the Site.
- Upload or transmit (or attempt to upload or to transmit) viruses, Trojan horses, or other material, including excessive use of capital letters and spamming (continuous posting of repetitive text), that interferes with any party’s uninterrupted use and enjoyment of the Site or modifies, impairs, disrupts, alters, or interferes with the use, features, functions, operation, or maintenance of the Site.
- Engage in any automated use of the system, such as using scripts to send comments or messages, or using any data mining, robots, or similar data gathering and extraction tools.
- Delete the copyright or other proprietary rights notice from any Content.
- Attempt to impersonate another user or person or use the username of another user.
- Upload or transmit (or attempt to upload or to transmit) any material that acts as a passive or active information collection or transmission mechanism, including without limitation, clear graphics interchange formats (“gifs”), 1×1 pixels, web bugs, cookies, or other similar devices (sometimes referred to as “spyware” or “passive collection mechanisms” or “pcms”).
- Interfere with, disrupt, or create an undue burden on the Site or the networks or services connected to the Site.
- Harass, annoy, intimidate, or threaten any of our employees or agents engaged in providing any portion of the Site to you.
- Attempt to bypass any measures of the Site designed to prevent or restrict access to the Site, or any portion of the Site.
- Copy or adapt the Site’s software, including but not limited to Flash, PHP, HTML, JavaScript, or other code.
- Except as permitted by applicable law, decipher, decompile, disassemble, or reverse engineer any of the software comprising or in any way making up a part of the Site.
- Except as may be the result of standard search engine or Internet browser usage, use, launch, develop, or distribute any automated system, including without limitation, any spider, robot, cheat utility, scraper, or offline reader that accesses the Site, or using or launching any unauthorized script or other software.
- Use a buying agent or purchasing agent to make purchases on the Site.
- Make any unauthorized use of the Site, including collecting usernames and/or email addresses of users by electronic or other means for the purpose of sending unsolicited email, or creating user accounts by automated means or under false pretenses.
- Use the Site as part of any effort to compete with us or otherwise use the Site and/or the Content for any revenue-generating endeavor or commercial enterprise.
- Use the Site to advertise or offer to sell goods and services.
- The creation, distribution, transmission, public display, or performance, and the accessing, downloading, or copying of your Contributions do not and will not infringe the proprietary rights, including but not limited to the copyright, patent, trademark, trade secret, or moral rights of any third party.
- You are the creator and owner of or have the necessary licenses, rights, consents, releases, and permissions to use and to authorize us, the Site, and other users of the Site to use your Contributions in any manner contemplated by the Site and these Terms of Use.
- You have the written consent, release, and/or permission of each and every identifiable individual person in your Contributions to use the name or likeness of each and every such identifiable individual person to enable inclusion and use of your Contributions in any manner contemplated by the Site and these Terms of Use.
- Your Contributions are not false, inaccurate, or misleading.
- Your Contributions are not unsolicited or unauthorized advertising, promotional materials, pyramid schemes, chain letters, spam, mass mailings, or other forms of solicitation.
- Your Contributions are not obscene, lewd, lascivious, filthy, violent, harassing, libelous, slanderous, or otherwise objectionable (as determined by us).
- Your Contributions do not ridicule, mock, disparage, intimidate, or abuse anyone.
- Your Contributions are not used to harass or threaten (in the legal sense of those terms) any other person and to promote violence against a specific person or class of people.
- Your Contributions do not violate any applicable law, regulation, or rule.
- Your Contributions do not violate the privacy or publicity rights of any third party.
- Your Contributions do not violate any applicable law concerning child pornography, or otherwise intended to protect the health or well-being of minors.
- Your Contributions do not include any offensive comments that are connected to race, national origin, gender, sexual preference, or physical handicap.
- Your Contributions do not otherwise violate, or link to material that violates, any provision of these Terms of Use, or any applicable law or regulation.