Record Profits Could Convince Oil Majors To Hike Dividends

  • SHARE

  • mailMail

Record Profits Could Convince Oil Maj...

  • SHARE

  • mail

Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

Oil · 25 July, 2022

Record Profits Could Convince Oil Majors To Hike Dividends

 Strong up-and-downstream performance make for strong big oil earnings expectations.  Oil majors’ refining divisions are set to outperform.  European oil majors are expected to boost share buybacks and hike dividends.

Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

wVy0Xa4WUMnKgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==

The world’s largest international oil and gas
companies are expected to accelerate share repurchases, and some could raise
dividends next week when Big Oil is expected to report another very strong
quarter. Shareholders could be in for higher returns as Shell, BP, Total
Energies, Exxon, and Chevron are all forecast to post exceptional and possibly
record quarterly earnings for the second quarter due to high commodity prices
and multi-year-high refining margins.

 

Some of the top international oil majors have already
announced expectations of blockbuster earnings—especially in their refining
divisions—for Q2. Analysts expect at least some of them to step up share
buybacks and some even to announce an increase in dividends amid record cash
flows and record or near-record earnings.

 

The second-quarter earnings for the top majors are
forecast to be even higher than the already blockbuster earnings reported for
the first quarter. Oil above $100 per barrel throughout the second quarter and
surging refining margins amid rebounding gasoline demand will help Big Oil beat
in Q2 the blowout earnings from Q1, companies signaled and analysts say.

 

Big Oil’s shareholders could see their returns much
improved in the coming months as companies report Q2 earnings over the next
week. Previewing Q2 results, firms have said they expect “exceptional”
earnings, particularly in their refining divisions.

 

France’s supermajor TotalEnergies said last week that
“Refining & Chemicals results are expected to be exceptional given the very
high levels of distillate and gasoline cracks.” ExxonMobil said in an SEC
filing in early July that the rise in industry margins is set to add between
$4.4 billion and $4.6 billion to its Q2 results. At Shell, the refining margin
nearly tripled in Q2 compared to Q1 and is expected to add between $800 million
and $1.2 billion to the second quarter results of Shell’s Products division
compared to the first quarter of 2022. 

 

So when Big Oil reports Q2 earnings, the market will
be watching how much of those exceptional earnings will be returned to
shareholders.

 

Europe’s biggest firms—Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies—are
expected to boost share repurchases. Some analysts expect that Shell could
announce a further dividend increase.

 

“Based on a $70 long-term oil price, we see
significant potential for Shell to increase its dividend and guide towards
longer-term dividend growth,” Jonathan Waghorn, portfolio manager at the
Guinness Global Energy fund, told Reuters.

 

BP could also bump up its dividend by 4% or possibly
more, according to HSBC analysts cited by Reuters.

 

The U.S. supermajors Exxon and Chevron could refrain
from further upward targets on share repurchases after recently revising up
their buyback plans.

 

After doubling Q1 earnings, Exxon announced at the end
of April that it would triple its share repurchase program up to a total of $30
billion through 2023. Chevron, in early March, raised its share buyback
guidance to $5 - $10 billion per year, up from prior guidance of $3 to $5
billion per year.

 

“With the increase in our dividend and buybacks in the
middle of our updated guidance range, cash returned to shareholders is expected
to grow more than 50% from last year,” Chevron’s CFO Pierre Breber said at the
time.

 

The blockbuster earnings have already drawn the
attention of policymakers.

 

The UK, home to Shell and BP, introduced a windfall
tax of 25%, a new temporary 25% Energy Profits Levy for oil and gas companies,
reflecting their extraordinary profits as oil and gas prices surged.

 

In the United States, President Joe Biden continues to
call out oil companies for their profits and to call on them to pass on to
consumers the 20% drop in oil prices since mid-June. 

 

“Exxon made more money than God this year,” President
Biden said earlier this year.

 
































































By Tsvetana Paraskova / Jul 24, 2022, 4:00 PM