Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on higher dollar, weak demand outlook

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Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

Oil · 13 July, 2022

Brent crude settles below $100/bbl on higher dollar, weak demand outlook

Global benchmark Brent crude tumbled $7 on Tuesday to settle below $100 a barrel for the first time in three months on a strengthening dollar, COVID-19 curbs in top crude importer China, and rising fears of a global economic slowdown.

Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

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Summary

·      Brent
and WTI fall by more than $7 a barrel

·      Analysts:
Recession fears, China COVID curbs hurt oil

·      Dollar
strengthens, stock markets fall

·      IEA:
Russia oil price cap should include refined products

·      OPEC
forecasts slower oil demand growth in 2023

 

HOUSTON, July 12 (Reuters) - Global benchmark Brent
crude tumbled $7 on Tuesday to settle below $100 a barrel for the first time in
three months on a strengthening dollar, COVID-19 curbs in top crude importer
China, and rising fears of a global economic slowdown.

 

The sharp drop followed a month of volatile trading in
which investors have sold oil positions on worries that aggressive interest
rate hikes to stem inflation will spur an economic downturn that will hit oil
demand.

 

Brent crude futures settled $7.61, or 7.1% lower, at
$99.49 a barrel, its lowest since April 11. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
was down $8.25, or 7.9%, at $95.84, also the lowest in three month.

 

Since their peak this year in March, Brent has
declined 29%, while WTI has fallen 27%.

 

Oil prices are facing extreme pressure "as a
defensive posture continues with consumer sentiment still in a depressed mode
along with a COVID re-surface in China," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice
president for trading at BOK Financial.

 

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against a
basket of six counterparts, also climbed earlier in the day to 108.56, its
highest level since October 2002.

 

Oil is generally priced in U.S. dollars, so a stronger
greenback makes the commodity more expensive to holders of other currencies.
Investors also tend to view the dollar as a safe haven during market
volatility.

 

Recession fears have also forced investors to dump
petroleum-related derivatives at one of the fastest rates of the pandemic era.
Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 110 million barrels
in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in
the week to July 5

 

Open interest in New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
futures fell on July 7 to its lowest since October 2015.

 

Close-to-close volatility on Brent and WTI is at its
highest level since early April. Lower liquidity typically results in a more
volatile market.

 

Renewed COVID-19 travel curbs in China weighed on oil
prices too, with multiple Chinese cities adopting fresh restrictions, from
business shutdowns to broader lockdowns, in an effort to rein in new infections
from a highly infectious subvariant of the virus.

 

U.S. President Joe Biden will make the case for higher
oil production from OPEC when he meets Gulf leaders in Saudi Arabia this week,
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday.

 

However, industry insiders, sources and experts have
questioned whether, with current output of at least 10.5 million barrels per
day, Saudi Arabia really has another 1.5 million bpd up its sleeve that can be
brought online quickly and sustained.

 

Spare capacity within Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been running low, with most producers pumping at
maximum capacity. OPEC on Tuesday also forecast that world oil demand will rise
by 2.7 million bpd in 2023, slightly slower than in 2022.

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
forecast a rise in U.S. crude production and petroleum demand in 2022 as the
economy grows.

 

Crude stocks rose by about 4.8 million barrels for the
week ended July 8, market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures
said. Gasoline inventories also rose by 3 million barrels, according to the
sources. Inventory data from the EIA is expected on Wednesday.

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Asia to
discuss ways to strengthen sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on
Russian oil to limit the country's profits and help lower energy prices.

 


















































































International Energy
Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said that any price caps on Russian
oil should include refined products.

By Arathy Somasekhar/July 13, 2022 5:31 AM GMT+8