Oil Holds Above $110 as Tight Supply Balanced by Recession Risk

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Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

Oil · 05 July, 2022

Oil Holds Above $110 as Tight Supply Balanced by Recession Risk

(Bloomberg) -- Oil held gains as investors assessed still-strong underlying market signals against concerns a recession will eventually sap demand.

Commodity

Oil

Writer

IPG Staff2

West Texas Intermediate traded above $110 a barrel in
Asia after a long holiday weekend in the US. The benchmark is about 2% higher
than Friday’s close as there was no settlement on Monday. Key market
timespreads remain robust, indicating that there’s solid demand for near-term
crude supplies.

Oil has started the third quarter in strong form after
dropping in June, when concerns about an economic slowdown spurred the
commodity’s the first monthly loss this year. While Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine has roiled crude flows and lifted prices, the jump in energy costs has
fanned inflation. That’s pushed central banks to raise rates, triggering risks
growth will stall.


“I don’t think sentiment has fundamentally shifted to
a positive tone yet,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at Australia
& New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Further signs of tightness in the
physical market will be required.”


Still, the crude market remains in backwardation, a
bullish structure marked by near-term prices trading above longer-dated ones.
Brent’s prompt spread -- the difference between its two nearest contracts --
was above $4 a barrel in backwardation on Tuesday, up from about $2.50 a barrel
a month ago.


Traders are also tracking China’s efforts to contain
renewed Covid-19 outbreaks and enable Asia’s largest economy to reopen fully.
That would bolster consumption and offset the drag from slowdowns in the US and
Europe.

“China is the real wildcard here: it’s going to be two
steps forward, one step back,” said ANZ’s Hynes. “A demand recovery in China
could potentially offset weakness in developed economies as central banks
tighten monetary policy.”

Oil’s rally has prompted western leaders to demand the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies pump more. On
Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged Saudi Arabia to ramp up oil
output, seeking to cool record fuel prices. That echoes a similar plea from US
President Joe Biden, who is due to visit Middle Eastern suppliers later this
month.

In welcome news for Biden, retail gasoline prices in
the US have eased from a record above $5 a gallon in mid-June. Pump prices were
near $4.80 on Sunday, according to figures from auto club AAA, after dropping
for 20 consecutive days in the longest losing run in more than two years.


By. Sharon Cho / July 5, 2022 at 10.39AM